State College, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXUS61 KCTP 250551
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
151 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A warm night ahead with low humidity
* Periods of rain showers and a possible thunderstorm Friday
  into Saturday; trending cooler and drying out Saturday night
* Dry weather Sunday and Monday with some frost potential; then
  warming up nicely ahead of the next chance for rain Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Mostly clear and still very warm for this time of year late this
evening with hourly temps ranging from the mid 60s to around 70.
Attention turning upstream to approaching weather system for
later Friday and Friday night, as high clouds increase overnight
into Friday morning. Skies will turn out partly to mostly cloudy
west and mostly clear east for the balance of tonight with min
temps +5 to +20F above climo; largest departures from normal
across the western and northern mtns. A couple of showers are
possible toward daybreak Friday across the western periphery of
the CWA as warm advection ramps up ahead of the next frontal
system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to show low pressure developing over Lower
Michigan and strengthening as it tracks into northern New
England by Saturday night. The parent h5 trough amplifies
through the Great Lakes as the attendant/trailing cold front
sweeps through CPA. This feature will drive periods of rain and
possibly a few t-storm downpours mainly during the Friday PM
through Saturday morning timeframe. Models have been increasing
the drying by late morning Saturday with most shower activity
exiting to the east after 15z, and have nudged the NBM POPs
drier as a result.

But before the drying arrives, it should by a soggy Friday night
with PW > 1.00 inch, relatively strong IWT and some elevated
instability suggesting the potential for locally heavy rainfall,
particularly across the northwest part of the forecast area.
This area has been wet relative to the southeast zones and may
be susceptible to some minor flooding concerns. WPC has
maintained the D2 MRGL ERO with increased soil saturation and
lower FFGs although confidence in flooding impacts is low.

Friday into Friday night will remain on the mild side before
much cooler air arrives on Saturday. This will arrive via gusty
gusty (25-35 mph) NNWly post frontal flow late Saturday morning
and afternoon, and will spell drying conditions from NW to SE
later Saturday through Saturday night. Min temps Sunday morning
in the 35-45F range will be 10 to 20 degrees lower vs. Friday
night/AM Saturday. The NW breeze will preclude frost formation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Breezy start on Sunday with perhaps some low clouds lingering
downwind of Lake Erie. Otherwise, another nice stretch of
weather setting up heading into month end.

Key callouts and playbook moves for early next week include:

1) lowering dewpoints Sunday with potential for elevated
wildfire spread risk (somewhat dependent on how much rain we get
Friday/Saturday)

2) lowering min temps Sunday night into AM Monday given low PWAT
and strong MSLP (radiational cooling) signals. This introduces
a frost/freeze risk that should be monitored in the days ahead.

After bottoming Monday morning, expect another warming trend
into the middle of next week with highs climbing back into the
70-80F range. Models show 500mb ridge cresting the region
Tuesday which will open the door for increasing rain probs (and
strong/severe storm risk?) ahead of an approaching cold front
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The D6/29 April 15% svr prob is not
far from NW PA.

While there is increasing uncertainty beyond Tuesday, model
data seems to suggest the (Tue) cold front settles to the south
of PA and returns northward by the end of the period. This
scenario would afford a dry day on Wednesday followed by another
shot of rain Thursday. Confidence is low to medium at best at
this range and did not deviate much from NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are virtually certain (100% confidence)
throughout the first half of the 06Z TAF package, with all model
guidance outlining no restrictions prior to 25/20Z. Combination
of HREF/GLAMP guidance continues to outline SHRA entering the
western airspace between 16Z-18Z; however, low-level moisture
remains fairly dry through this timeframe. At this time,
trending closer to GLAMP guidance as first raindrops will likely
begin at airfields in this timeframe; however, restrictions
based on both ceilings and visibilities seem most likely after
25/20Z at BFD/JST. Low-level dry air in model soundings do
outline that rain will initially struggle to get further west
with a slower progression with rain area wide by 25/23Z. Some
periods without rain appear possible based on newest HREF
guidance; however, lower confidence (~20-30%) on these breaks in
precipitation at this time so have not outlined any breaks in
the TAF package as of right now.

HREF probabilities for IFR ceilings increase across the western
airspace ~25/22Z and continue through the end of the 06Z TAF
package. Highest confidence in IFR remains across the northern
and western airfields (BFD/JST/IPT/UNV) along with where low-
level moisture is highest in recent model guidance. Recent GLAMP
guidance does also indicate IFR ceilings prevailing at AOO
~26/04Z and MDT/LNS ~26/05Z; however, given slightly less
favorable moisture in the lowest levels in model RH cross-
sections have kept mentions of IFR out of these TAFs, outside of
AOO where ~30% confidence does warrant a PROB30 group into the
end of the 06Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Sat...Sub-VFR likely with rain showers and possibly a t-storm.
Wind gusts 20-25kt from 280-310 degrees behind the front
Saturday night.

Sun-Mon...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Tue...Showers and possibly a few t-storms with sub-VFR probable
into Tuesday night.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...NPB